I am firmly of the belief that we are in midst of dramatic change in the specialty coffee industry - whereby we will see an end of the ‘average’ coffee house.

The 3rd Wave cafe has created a gap between themselves and what used to be good…or  good-enough. They’ve set the bar so high that you either need to follow suit and or get out of the way - because as we know, once you’ve tasted the best…there is no going back.  So, I believe that we will see the middle fall out of the specialty coffee scene and we’ll be left with amazing 3rd wave cafes…and those who compete on price/size/convenience (read: McDonalds & such).

By now - you have likely heard that Starbucks is testing the idea of the $1.00 coffee with free refills in a few Seattle locations. In my opinion - this is a sign of the beginning of the end for Bucks. Not that the company is going away - but that their perception or cache in the industry is done. Starbucks blew it when they moved away from manual espresso machines and dipping your toe into the ‘free refill’ arena is a slippery slope.

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